Wisconsin preview: Border battle in Madison
The last game of the regular season has snuck up on the college basketball world and the Gophers are looking to continue their current eight game winning streak against their cross-state rival, Wisconsin. While Minnesota is looking to continue their eight-game win streak, Wisconsin has lost three straight and five out of their last six. The Badgers were red hot early in Big Ten play, including a stretch of eight straight wins over January and February. Minnesota has been playing their best ball of the season as of late and they showcased that in their 88-73 win over Nebraska on Thursday. The Gophers shot 55% from the field and had four players in double figures, led by Nate Mason who finished with 25 points on 9/13 shooting. Jordan Murphy had 20 points and a team high 11 rebounds on the way to notching his sixth double double in the past seven games. He has 95 rebounds in that span.
With Maryland beating Michigan State on Saturday afternoon, Minnesota has now clinched a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. With a win over Wisconsin, the Gophers will be a two seed and with a loss, they'll be a four seed.
Sunday's game will be Senior Night in Madison. The Badgers have had the Gophers number lately, and they are trying to send their four seniors -- Showalter, Koenig, Hayes, and Brown -- out on a high note in the last game they will ever play in the Kohl Center.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Bronson Koenig had a calf injury that held him out of the Badgers loss against Michigan three weeks ago, but he has been dynamite since returning from the injury and has scored at least 17 points in the past three games. Koenig had a team high 27 points in the loss to Michigan State last Sunday, and during the Badgers’ drought he’s looked liked the only confident Badger with the ball in his hands at times. He is their senior leader and he has made big shot after big shot in his career, including a dagger three pointer to take the lead for good over Minnesota in the Barn this season. He’s a good three-point shooter and also excels using high ball screens to get good looks from the top of the key.
Ethan Happ has been outstanding for Wisconsin over the last two years, and his performance this season has made him a near lock for All-Big Ten First Team honors. He is averaging 14 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.1 steals. He doesn’t take many jumpers but can still impact the game many ways offensively. Most Big Ten teams have tried to double him when he gets the ball with his back to the basket to force him to pass it or make a play. Doubling is hard on a defense and rotations have to be executed well, especially against a team like Wisconsin that has so many scorers. Happ is not only talented offensively but also the Badgers’ best player defensively, even though that doesn’t appear the case on paper. Lynch will match up with Happ and his ability to stay out of foul trouble will be the biggest x-factor for the Gophers, as it so often is.
Forward Nigel Hayes has had an outstanding college career. He has averaged double digit points per game in the past three years and has helped lead his team to two Final Fours and a Sweet 16 appearance. Happ’s averages have taken a small dip this season, and his shooting percentages have dropped as well. Where Hayes is most dangerous on the court right now is on the block and using his size to back down smaller defenders and score in the post. He’s a matchup issue because he plays the 3 and the 4, has some perimeter skill, a good touch in the paint, and is physically very strong. He loves to back down smaller players and turn over his left shoulder for a right-handed hook shot. He’ll also face up players and shoot over them, or take a dribble at them, spin, and try to finish. Murphy will be asked to defend Hayes. He’s improved defensively since the last time Minnesota played Wisconsin, and also has the foot speed and vertical to match Hayes. Still, this is somewhat of a concerning matchup for Minnesota.
| # | Name | Stats | Scouting Report |
|---|---|---|---|
|
22 |
C Ethan Happ |
14.0 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.2 bpg, 59.7% FG |
All-Big Ten big man that rebounds and scores well. Very effective on the block. Smart, efficient player. Probably Wisconsin's top defender, too. |
|
24 |
PG Bronson Koenig |
14.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, 37.7% 3PT |
One of the best three-point shooters in the Big Ten. UW's lead guard but is assisting at a lower rate than Happ and Hayes, amazingly. |
|
10 |
SF/PF Nigel Hayes |
13.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.9 apg, 44.3% FG, 29.5% 3PT |
Built combo forward that can do a bit of everything. Too strong for small forwards and too quick and crafty for bigs. Good three-point shooter with his feet set. Excellent at facing up and attacking. Gets to the free throw line but is only shooting 60% there. |
|
3 |
SG Zak Showalter |
8.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.7 apg, 37.6% 3PT |
Very low-usage player offensively but he's smart and thus efficient on that end. Good three-point shooter. |
|
30 |
PF Vitto Brown |
6.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 38.7% FG, 29.5% 3PT |
Tough, athletic undersized power forward that is most effective near the basket but has developed the ability to shoot threes during his time at UW. |
|
0 |
PG D'Mitrik Trice |
5.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 43.5% 3PT |
Freshman point guard that's the brother of Travis Trice. Smart player despite being just a freshman. Good three-point shooter. |
|
21 |
SF Khalil Iverson |
3.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 54.2% FG |
Sophomore wing that rebounds well and is best near the basket. Toughness and athleticism makes him good attacking the basket. Poor jump shooter and low-volume player offensively. |
|
25 |
PF Alex Illikainen |
1.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 31.4% FG, 25% 3PT |
Minnesota native has struggled offensively this year. Pick-and-pop stretch 4 but his shot hasn't been falling this year. His confidence may have taken a hit as he's been an extraordinarily low-usage player offensively. |
BY THE NUMBERS
| Team | Record | Pomeroy | TeamRankings |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnesota |
23-7 (11-6) |
32 |
35 |
|
Wisconsin |
22-8 (11-6) |
24 |
17 |
Vegas line: Wisconsin by 7.5
TeamRankings: Wisconsin by 5 with a 22.3% chance of Minnesota victory
NumberFire: Wisconsin by 3.3 with a 36.1% chance of Minnesota victory
PREDICTION
Perhaps the most important factor in this game is Reggie Lynch’s ability to stay on the floor. Happ and Lynch are perhaps their team’s two most important players, so it will be crucial that they stay on the floor to give their teams the best chance to win.
Minnesota and Wisconsin are the two top teams defensively in the Big Ten according to Pomeroy, so another x-factor will be simply who can make plays and big shots. Mason and Koenig both have the reputation of a shotmaker, and one of them having a big game will likely go a long ways towards their team winning.
Lastly, who will close? This game will almost certainly come down to the last minutes. Minnesota’s proved they can close during this eight-game win streak. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has struggled finishing games recently.
Because of Lynch staying on the court more, Mason and Murphy having big game after big game, and Minnesota staying composed on both ends in tight games, it’s hard to pick against the Gophers right now.
Minnesota 72, Wisconsin 68