The Minnesota Golden Gophers enter this upcoming season in what is expected to be a transitionary season for the program. In 2022, the Gophers won at least nine games for the third time in their last three full seasons and the fourth time overall since 2016.
This upcoming season, however, is expected to be a transitionary season for the Gophers due to a large amount of roster turnover, including at several key positions. Leading to the question, can the Gophers continue their recent success in 2023 despite that challenge and others?
Sportsbooks currently do not believe so, with the Gophers' win-loss totals coming in around 6 and 6.5 on most sportsbooks.
Below, we take a look at several of the challenges that the Gophers will face this season if they hope to sustain their recent success.
PLENTY OF ROSTER TURNOVER THIS OFFSEASON
But, the program saw a lot of turnovers this offseason, including quarterback Tanner Morgan, running back Mohamed Ibrahim, offensive lineman John Michael Schmitz, Chuck Filaga, and Alex Ruschmeyer on the offensive side of the ball.
Losing your starting quarterback and running back is never easy, but losing three of your five starting offensive linemen makes it an even tougher task, especially early in the season.
On the defensive side of the ball, names such as defensive end Thomas Rush, linebackers Mariano Sori-Marin and Barelin Oliver, cornerbacks Micahel Dixon and Terrell Smith, as well as safety Jordan Howden.
Losing leaders such as Rush, Sori-Marin, and Howden will test the Gophers' leadership on defense early this season.
Overall it's quite a bit of talent to replace for the Gophers. That being said, P.J. Fleck addressed most of the Gophers' immediate needs in the transfer portal this offseason which should help, but it will still be a tall task to replace the production lost.
THE SCHEDULE
The schedule for the Golden Gophers is a tough one which makes it even harder to gauge expectations. ESPN currently ranks the Gophers schedule as the second hardest in all of college football, only behind the Ole Miss Rebels.
Their season opener against Nebraska is arguably the most intriguing of the year for the Gophers. As the Gophers see a wide amount of change, the Nebraska program will look for a strong start under first-year head coach Matt Rhule.
Games against Eastern Michigan, at Northwestern, and home against Louisiana are favorable, but beyond that, the Gophers' 2023 schedule is very much one of coin flips and tough matchups. Their remaining games are at North Carolina, vs Michigan, at Iowa, vs Michigan State, vs Illinois, at Purdue, at Ohio State, and vs Wisconsin. While a winning record is very much realistic for the program, an avenue to another nine-win season could be tough, especially with all the personnel changes.
Ultimately, the Gophers' first three games of the season, which include their matchups against Nebraska and North Carolina, should set the tone of what is to be expected for the remainder of the season.
We have seen the Gophers navigate tough schedules in the past, but this will be the hardest of the P.J. Fleck era; there's no doubt about that.
CAN ATHAN KALIAKMANIS TAKE THE NEXT STEP
Offensively, the Gophers' success will come down to just how ready Athan Kaliakmanis is to be the full-time starter.
Earlier this year in the spring, when previewing the quarterback room, we talked extensively about Kaliakmanis and what he must improve upon from this past fall.
Last year, Kaliakmanis completed 60-of-111 passing attempts (54%) for 946 yards and three touchdowns while throwing four interceptions. He also added 140 yards on the ground and one touchdown over 34 carries.
In the passing game last season, Kaliakmanis did a great job when it came to play-actin, completing 28-of-47 passing attempts for 502 yards and three touchdowns. His success rate, however, on non-play action plays was much lower, completing 25-of-55 attempts for 364 yards and four interceptions. Those numbers will have to improve this fall if the Gopher's offense is going to have sustainable success.
Prior to his injury in the Pinstripe Bowl, Kaliakmanis was showing the beginning of what was him potentially taking this next step. Against the Wisconsin Badgers in their season finale and then against Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl, Kaliamanis went a combined 26-for-38 for 399 yards and two touchdowns.
He'll get an early good test out of the way in week one against what should be a quality Nebraska secondary.
REPLACING MOHAMED IBRAHIM
Replacing Mohamed Ibrahim, of course, will be another huge task for the Gophers this upcoming season. It's never easy to replace over 1,600 yards of production and 20 touchdowns on your roster.
Western Michigan transfer Sean Tyler will look to fill his shoes. Last season, Tyler had his second straight year of 1,000+ yards for Western Michigan, rushing for 1,027 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. They'll also look toward Bryce Williams and Zach Evans as potential running backs who could emerge this fall for the Gophers. Evans had a major performance in the Gophers' spring game with three touchdowns.
It wil likely prove impossible for the Gophers to completely fill the Mohamed Ibrahim hole that now exists on their offense. After all, Ibrahim is one of the best players in program history.
CAN THE DEFENSE CONTINUE TO REPLICATE ITS SUCCESS?
Over the past two seasons, Minnesota's defense has been one of the best in the country, allowing just 17.3 points and 13.8 points, respectively.
Now that they will be missing defensive end, Thomas Rush, linebackers Mariano Sori-Marin and Barelin Oliver, cornerbacks Micahel Dixon and Terrell Smith, as well as safety Jordan Howden as mentioned above, can they replicate that success? It will be a challenge for defensive coordinator Joe Rossi.
Names such as Kyler Baugh, Cody Lindenberg, Justin Walley, and of course, Tyler Nubin will be looked upon to lead the Gophers on the defensive side of the ball. Their secondary should remain a strong one with Nubin's presence as well Justin Walley, Jack Henderson, Tariq Waton, and Darius Green's presence, among others.
The Gophers' defense will likely take a small step back but should remain one of the better defenses in the Big Ten this season.
OVERALL
There will clearly be several obstacles for the Gophers to overcome this fall if they hope to record another season of nine-plus wins. While nine wins might push the envelope of the Gophers' ceiling this year, it certainly isn't something that is unrealistic for the program. The scheudle is surely tough but there are questions about many of their opponents remaining. The only programs on the schedule that are guaranteed to be strong this fall are truly Michigan and Ohio State.
Ultimately, the program's success will come down to Athan Kaliamanis on the offensive side of the ball, and on the defensive side of the ball, it will be replacing the leadership that was lost. If the Gophers can find the answers they're looking for to both of those questions, they will once again be one of the better teams in the Big Ten this fall, but those answers remain to be seen.
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