Shot selection and defensive lapses late on the road against Indiana led to the Gophers latest loss of the season. This outcome put Minnesota in the last four in category, according to ESPN's head Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, with four games left in the regular season.
Minnesota was forced to break in a first-time starter after Gabe Kalscheur broke a finger in practice on Tuesday, and is out indefinitely. That new starter was Jamal Mashburn Jr. who put up a career high 19 points just one game after setting his previous career high of 14 points. Tre' Williams, who has been starting for Both Gach in the last six contests, finished with 12 points and a very impressive nine point first half.
In the first half of Wednesday's loss, Mashburn Jr. and Williams teamed up with Marcus Carr in the backcourt to combine for 30 of the Gophers 37 points. All game long the Gophers had to lean on these three guards, and got little to no offensive production from the center position with Liam Robbins not looking close to 100%.
In the second half, it seemed like being the offensive catalysts all game got to their legs, and they started settling for deep jumpers instead of attacking the rim, like they had so much success doing in the first half. The trio still combined for 50 of the team's 72 points despite the late struggles.
Although the loss was disappointing, and puts Minnesota on the bubble in regards to the NCAA Tournament, the performance from the new backcourt makes me wonder what this team can accomplish on offense if Liam Robbins gets back healthy.
Tre' Williams
Tre' Williams has always been confident when he's stepped onto the court, and his potential was always intriguing. With Gach and Kalscheur underperforming, we've gotten to see how the sophomore looks in an expanded role, and so far, it's been pretty good.
Since being named a starter, Williams has been shooting 42.1% from three (8/19), and has been learning what his athleticism can do for him. Against Indiana, he had several extremely strong takes to the basket that resulted in layups. He also had a few drives to the hoop that got him to the foul line where he converted two of four attempts.
The two areas that Williams can improve on to make him a really solid starter is his shot selection, and free throw shooting. If he does this, he's capable of matching this type of scoring output down the stretch on a nightly basis.
The 6'5" guard has been a good three-point shooter, especially on catch and shoot. Williams tried a little too hard to create for himself off the dribble on Wednesday, and that led to some tough and inefficient shots. He had his most success on the catch when he attacked the rim with no hesitation like we saw in the first half below.
When he gets to the foul line, he's been horrendous, but it has been a somewhat small sample size. Williams is 8/22 from the foul line this season (36.4%), and as a starter is just slightly better at 4/9 (44.4%). I would like to think he's closer to a 60% free throw shooter given more volume like he was last year, but we only have what we can work with now.
If he's able to prescribe to the Villanova type style of basketball that emphasizes catch and shoot three's and attacking closeouts on the catch, then I think that getting around 10 points per night isn't out of the question for Williams going forward.
The film should be very simple to go over for Williams, and he's a sophomore now so it's time to make a leap. The good came from snap decisions and attacking the rim, while the bad came from a bit of overdribbling and trying to force something that isn't there.
Taking it to the basket and being a threat on the catch and shoot is a role that he can excel at in these next four games for Minnesota. This is his chance to make a huge surprise impact for a team that had plans to make some type of run into March not too long ago.
Jamal Mashburn Jr.Â
Although he just started his first game of the season, Jamal Mashburn Jr. saw an uptick in playing time around the same as Williams. What has come with that is a more aggressive freshman guard on the offensive end.
Something that Mashburn Jr. brings to Minnesota that is sorely needed in the offense is the ability to get paint touches. When Minnesota gets stagnant on offense, it is usually when the possession starts with a ball-screen that goes nowhere, and ineffective passing around the perimeter for a majority of the shot clock.
When Jamal Mashburn Jr. is in, he's always looking to get past his man, get both feet into the lane, collapse the defense, then make something happen. In the video below you'll see where Mashburn Jr.'s success comes from.
All season long, it seems like he's prioritized his looks off the catch by looking to: 1) get to the paint for a high percentage shot or kick to an open man and, 2) getting to his spots and into shots where he's comfortable, like the free throw line/elbow jumpers, and the 15-footer's on the baseline.
Mashburn Jr. has been the Gophers high scorer two games in a row now, and there's no reason he can't continue to be a 10-14 point scorer per game scorer down the stretch. In fact, Minnesota needs him to be that. If he's not, don't expect a lot of wins coming soon.
His tendency to hunt for his spots in the midrange leads to a bit lower eFG%, but those are shots that he's very comfortable with and he's improved in picking those spots each game.
If he continues this output and continues to be a catalyst for the offense, that takes some of that pressure off his junior running mate, and we could see gameplans ease up the focused pressure on Carr. Plus, his emergence allows to get Carr looks off the ball where he can attack a rotating defense rather than one fixated on him beginning with a ball-screen. Jamal Mashburn Jr. being on the court makes the offense better, and he's going to be playing big minutes down the stretch.
Looking Forward
If the Liam Robbins is not able to get close or back to 100% again, then I would expect that we would continue to see similar results as the Maryland and Indiana games going forwards.
Him not being at full health completely takes away the interior presence that Minnesota has in their offense when they're at their best. After scoring 11 and injuring his ankle in a win against Purdue, he's scored two and six points against the Terrapins and Hoosiers.
It looks like the new backcourt with Tre' Wlliams and Jamal Mashburn Jr. has some fire power and the ability to get high percentages looks. Are those two able to get you around 10-15 points per game each? Then Carr get's his 15-22 and you're looking at a backcourt trio that gets you 40+ points per game and would be a fantastic revelation for this Gopher offense. They combined for 50 against Indiana. Can they be consistent?
If that consistent backcourt production is met with Robbins return to form then this Minnesota team has a good chance to pick up some big wins down the stretch. Up next is (Feb. 20) 5th ranked Illinois coming to The Barn, where Minnesota is 5-0 against ranked opponents and 13-1 overall.
After that is another home game against (Feb 27) Northwestern. An absolute must win. Followed by a road game (Mar 3) against Penn State. Again, must win. But the circumstances for that one change because of the psychology of being winless on the road.
Then comes a big one against (Mar 6) a Rutgers team that currently sits just outside the top-25, and could be a much needed resume booster and momentum booster when it's time to tip-off.
Bottom Line
Although the Gabe Kalschuer injury hurts depth and takes away a very good perimeter defender, the increased freedom Tre' Williams and Jamal Mashburn Jr. get in his absence could be a net positive on the offensive end. This backcourt should be equipped to bring more offensive firepower to the starting rotation. It would have been interesting to see this starting lineup with Kalscheur healthy and coming off the bench.
While I don't expect Minnesota to remain undefeated against ranked teams at home following their matchup against Illinois, I do think they can finish the season on a high note. If we see Robbins return to form coupled with an attack first, shoot three's second mindset from the new backcourt, this team could go into the Big Ten tournament with a bit of momentum and reason for optimism.
At 3-1 you're in the dance and looking to keep the momentum going. At 2-2 you might be in, but may have to win a Big Ten Tournament game to be sure. Anything worse than that, then this season is more than likely over and it will likely be time to reexamine the future of coach Richard Pitino at Minnesota.