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Minnesota vs Michigan Prediction: Who will win the Little Brown Jug?

Dylan Callaghan-Croley • Gophers Nation

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The Little Brown Jug will be on the line on Saturday afternoon at Michigan Stadium as the Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-2, 0-1) take on the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 1-0).

The Goldden Gophers will look to rebound from a 31-14 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes last Staurday, a game in which the Gophers allowed 272 rushing yards. A poor omen for P.J. Fleck's program when they will be facing a Wolverines offense that is expected to be significantly run heavy on Saturday.

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Also going against the Gophers favor in this one is Michigan's 30-1 record in conference play since the beginning of the 2021 season, their only loss in that time span coming to rival Michigan State. The Gophers in that same time span are 14-14 but have struggled since the beginning of last season with a 3-8 record.

On the opposite side line, the Michigan Wolverines defeated the USC Trojans last weekend 27-24 to open up Big Ten play, a major win for the Wolverines seeing that a loss would've already been their second of the season and putting them on the brink of potential playoff elimination despite it still being early in the season.

The Wolverines are in their first year under former offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore who took over the program after Jim Harbaugh took the Los Angeles Chargers' head coaching job.

The Wolverines this season, missing a large chunk of their roster and coaching staff from last season have solid but far from the juggernaut that they were over the past three seasons.

Now that the stage is set, let's make our pick for this afternoon's game.

The Prediction

There is only one way that the Gophers win this game, slowing the Michigan rushing attack. Unfortunately, the Gophers since last season have shown in Big Ten play that they struggle to do just that. Over the Gophers last four conference games they have allowed 200+ rushing yards in four straight games, opponents averaging 276 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. Unsurprisingly, the Gophers lost each of those four games by at least two scores.

Assuming Alex Orji is the quarterback for the entirety of Saturday's matchup, the Michigan passing attack will not be a threat. He threw for just 37 yards against USC last weekend on 12 attempts. Backup quarterback Davis Warren is a better passer but won't light it up either, he has a 66.7% completion percentage this fall for 444 yards in three games while also throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions.

In a lot of ways it's very similar to last week's 31-14 loss to Iowa. Cade McNamara is a shell of the former quarterback he was and early on the Gophers were able to slow down the Iowa rushing attack, however in the second half, they became undisciplined defensively and Kaleb Johnson was off to the races.

The good news for the Gophers perhaps is that this Michigan defense, while still dangerous, has not played to the same level as it has in years past, at least yet this season. The Wolverines are allowing 20.8 points and 323 yards per game this season including opponents passing for 246.5 yards per contest.

That number isn't a fluke either, that was inflated by Texas and USC as Fresno State and Arkansas State also had success through the air with 235 and 222 passing yards respectively in their losses to the Wolverines.

That being said, the Wolverines are very good against the run this season, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry and have kept three of four opponents below 100 yards for a game though USC did average 4.6 yards per game last weekend. Either way, the Wolverines strength defensively this season is certainly their run defense instead.

With all that being said, on Saturday, our pick to win is.... the Michigan Wolverines.

The pick comes down to the Gophers inability to slow down conference rushing attacks dating back to last season and Michigan's rushing attack is just as dangerous, if not more dangerous than the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have not just one but two dangerous tailbacks in Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards.

While we think this one could be close and we think the Gophers offense will find some success, we're just not sure that the Gophers have enough talent in the passing attack to successfully beat Michigan's secondary on a routine basis Saturday. If they're going to win, Max Brosmer will have to have his best game yet this season.