The wait is almost over, the Minnesota Golden Gophers in just a few hours will begin their 2024 season by taking on the North Carolina Tar Heels. With that it's time to make our official prediction here for this evening's contest.
At the time of writing, this is a matchup that I have consistently gone back-and-forth on, it's a true tossup on paper.
That being said, ultimately, right now there are too many questions for me regarding Minnesota's second coming into this game as well as the potential health of Darius Taylor and Daniel Jackson.
Within a few hours of posting, this point could be irrelevant and if Taylor and Jackson are both good to go, I significantly like the Gophers chances better. The word on both has been mum as of late but Vegas odds shifting towards North Carolina could potentially suggest that oddsmakers know something that we don't.
Beyond the health of Taylor and Jackson.
Let's go a little bit deeper into why I'm leaning towards North Carolina.
First, I feel a little bit more confident in North Carolina's offense to not have a huge drop off this season than I necessarily am ready to believe that Minnesota's passing attack is ready for a big step forward.
I believe Max Brosmer has the ability to be a very good quarterback for the Gophers and wouldn't be shocked if he has a huge season but entering this matchup there is simply a lack of proven commodities in the passing attack for Minnesota for me to be too confident. Elijah Spencer was obviously very good at Charlotte prior to arriving in Minneapolis but that failed to translate last season. Le'Meke Brockington has shown flashes when healthy but can he be consistent in 2024? Additionally, the lack of a true receiving threat at tight end doesn't help either.
In comparison, Minnesota has a proven quarterback at the Power Four level in Max Johnson.
While his 2023 season at Texas A&M was mostly forgettable, Johnson has proven to be capable throughout his career. He is just a few years removed from a standout season for the LSU Tigers in which he threw for over 2,800 yards and 27 touchdowns. While North Carolina may not be as talented as that LSU team, the Tar Heels still have a talented roster especially at the skill positions and a group that is a bit more proven than the Gophers.
That passing attack for North Carolina also matches up against a Minnesota secondary which could be improved in 2024 but for me, it's a "I'll believe it when I see it'' scenario. The safety room is one big question mark right now though the cornerback room should be solid with Justin Walley and Ethan Robinson leading the way.
Of course, the Gophers will also have to keep track of North Carolina tailback Omarion Hampton, an All-American a season ago. Notably, last year the Gophers kept Hampton to just 46 yards, one of his lowest outputs of the 2023 season. Will they have similar success on Thursday night? We'll have to wait and see. Ultimately, however, this North Carolina team has too many ways to beat the Gophers on paper Thursday night. If the Tar Heels are able to find explosive plays throughout the game, I'm not sure the Gophers will be able to go tit-for-tat but again, a lot of that rides on the availability of Daniel Jackson and Darius Taylor.
PREDICTION: North Carolina 27 - Minnesota 23
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