This Saturday, the Minnesota Golden Gophers will play host to the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions looking to pull off a season-defining win against one of the Big Ten's elite.
The Golden Gophers will enter week 13 well rested coming off their second bye week of the season and will look to make up for an unexpected 26-19 setback to Rutgers two weeks ago. Penn State has won back-to-back games in dominating fashion after a 20-13 loss to Ohio State and for the most part, has looked every bit of a top-five team this season.
With kickoff just a few days away, Penn State is an 11.5-point favorite for Saturday's 3:30 p.m. kickoff at Huntington Bank Stadium.
But who will have the advantage in this matchup? Gophers Nation takes a look below.
Penn State's passing offense vs Minnesota's pass defense
This is an intriguing matchup on paper and should be a good one.
This season, the Golden Gophers secondary has been one of the better in the nation, allowing 183.2 yards per game which ranks top-20 in the country. They'll face a Penn State passing attack that is good but not elite, passing for 254.1 yards per game this season.
Junior signal-caller Drew Allar has been very good for Penn State this season. He's completed 71.9% of his passes or 2,253 yards and 16 touchdowns while throwing just five interceptions.
However, his weapons in the passing attack are mostly that of tight end Tyler Warren (67 receptions for 808 yards and five touchdowns), wide receiver Harrison Wallace III (31 receptions for 533 yards and three touchdowns and his backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen (combined 36 receptions for 342 yards and six touchdowns).
Warren has been nearly unstoppable for opposing defenses this season which could spell danger for the Gophers. While they've only allowed one touchdown reception, the trio of Cody Lindenberg, Devon Williams, and Maverick Baranowski has allowed 43 receptions on 52 targets for 301 yards. The Gophers' linebackers with assistance from the secondary will have to find a way to slow down the likely John Mackey Award winner on Saturday.
However, when it comes to Penn State's wide receiver room, Harrison Wallace III is the only consistent receiver. Beyond his contributions, the Nittany Lions' wide receivers this season have recorded just a total of 42 receptions. The second most receptions by a Nittany Lions receiver belongs to Liam Clifford, the brother of former Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford with 15.
Overall, it's a matchup that could likely be a coin toss but the X-factor in our opinion is Drew Allar. He's by the most polished quarterback that the Golden Gophers will have faced this season and by far the quarterback that has the most NFL traits. He'll be able to take advantage of any small miscues from the Gophers' defense on Saturday. While we don't expect him to throw for 300+ yards, it does seem tough to find a way that the Gophers will be able to completely negate this Penn State passing attack.
Verdict: Penn State's passing attack
Penn State's rushing offense vs Minnesota's run defense
Another intriguing matchup, the Penn State rushing attack outside of a four-game stretch this season in October and early November has been elite.
The Nittany Lions this season have run for 2,000 yards and are averaging 200 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry, both top-20 ranks in the country. In the Nittany Lions' three worst games of the season that took place in four weeks, they were kept to 323 total yards on 83 carries, an average of 3.8 yards per carry. However, in their other seven games this season, the Nittany Lions have 5.7 yards per carry with 292 carries for 1,677 yards.
They've been particularly great in each of their last two games against Washington and Purdue as well with 74 carries for 500 yards, an average of 6.7 yards per carry.
Potentially the most important news for Penn State is that Nicholas Singleton appears to be fully healthy again. After averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and totaling 90 yards against USC, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, Singleton has 85 yards on 14 carries over the last two weeks for the Nittany Lions.
Kaytron Allen has been strong this season with 139 carries for 654 yards and five touchdowns but it's SIngleton's explosiveness and big play ability that truly makes the Nittany Lions' rushing attack dangerous.
When it comes to the Gophers, their run defense has been superb over the last few weeks, allowing just 119 caries on 375 yards over four games. However, they have not faced a backfield as dangerous or an offensive line as strong as the Nittany Lions since earlier this season when they faced Iowa, Michigan, and USC. In those three games, the Gophers allowed 600 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry.
While we don't expect Penn State to necessarily run over Minnesota similarly, it will likely be hard to truly stop the Nittany Lions rushing attack. We would project the Nittany Lions to be somewhere close to the 4.0 - 4.4 yards per carry mark in this one.
VERDICT: Penn State's rushing offense
Minnesota's passing offense vs Penn State's pass defense
It feels that Max Brosmer has been mostly underestimated this season when in reality, his numbers are not too different from the opposing signal caller in Drew Allar.
Entering Saturday, Brosmer has completed 67.1% of his passes for 2,251 yards and 14 touchdowns with four turnovers. He's been especially excellent over the last five games, completing 68% of his passes for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions.
As a unit, Brosmer and the Gophers are averaging 220.1 yards per game through the air this season which is around the national average entering week 13. They'll be facing a Penn State secondary that is among the best in the nation, allowing just 174 yards per game and 6.0 yards per attempt.
The Nittany Lions' secondary outside of a poor performance against Bowling Gren has been incredibly hard to beat this season. The Nittany Lions kept the likes of West Virginia to 161 yards, Ohio State to 182 yards, Illinois to 185 yards, and USC to 220 yards.
In that game against Ohio State, freshman star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was kept to a season-low four receptions for 55 yards and did not find the endzone for the first time in his career.
With that, the Nittany Lions have a favorable matchup on Saturday against a good but not great Gophers passing attack. Daniel Jackson and Elijah Spencer will be one of the better duos the Nittany Lions have faced this season and Darius Taylor could present some challenges out of the backfield as well.
But the Gophers' wide receivers will have their hands full with a Penn State secondary that has a handful of All-Big Ten worthy performers such as cornerbacks A.J. Harris, Elliot Washington II, and Jalen Kimber as well as safeties Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley.
The most intriguing matchup in this regard may just be Penn State's pass rush against the Golden Gophers' offensive line. The Gophers have protected Max Brosmer well this season allowing under 90 pressures in 10 games and just 13 of 23 sacks have been credited to the Gophers offensive line. That being said, they'll be facing a ferocious Penn State pass rush that has amassed 180 total quarterback pressures this season though only 25 of them have resulted in sacks.
Abdul Carter will be the single best defender the Gophers will have faced this season, the linebacker turned defensive end has 36 total pressures and eight sacks this season as well as 24 additional quarterback hurries.
While we think the Gophers will be able to have some success, it's hard to envision Max Brosmer and company having an overly successful day on Saturday against the Nittany Lions.
VERDICT: Penn State's pass defense
Minnesota's rushing offense vs Penn State's run defense
The Minnesota rushing attack this season has been a season-long struggle. The Gophers are averaging just 103.3 yards per contest this season despite Darius Taylor's best efforts.
After strong back-to-back games against Maryland and Illinois, the Gophers rushing attack reverted to where it was earlier this season with just 35 total yards against Rutgers two weeks ago and averaged 1.8 yards per carry.
Much of the Gophers' struggles this season on the ground can be drawn back to the offensive line's inability to get a consistent push in the trenches. Despite those inconsistencies from the offensive line, Darius Taylor has been great with 136 carries for 672 yards and nine touchdowns.
However, if Minnesota is going to win this game, they'll have to find a way to get a strong push on Saturday against the best front seven they have faced in 2024. The Nittany Lions defense as a whole has been elite but has barely budged on the ground, allowing just 98.7 rushing yards per game this season which ranks fifth nationally. Opposing ball carriers are averaging a mere 3.2 yards per carry.
It's not great news for a Gophers offensive line that massively struggled against three really good run defenses earlier this season in Michigan (25 carries, 38 yards, 1.5 ypc), Iowa (21 carries, 79 yards, 3.8 ypc), and UCLA (24 carries, 41 yards, 1.7 ypc). That doesn't include their struggles against North Carolina in the season opener or against Rutgers two weeks ago.
As mentioned multiple times this season, 100 yards is the magic number for Minnesota's rushing attack. When they surpass 100 yards on the ground, the Gophers are 5-0. When they have under 100 yards, they're 1-4. Getting to the century mark on Saturday will be a challenge.
VERDICT: PENN STATE'S RUN DEFENSE
SPECIAL TEAMS
Both special teams units this season have been mostly mediocre as a whole. Both programs have mostly reliable kickers.
The Nittany Lions' Ryan Barker since taking over in October is 8-for-9 in field goal opportunities while Dragan Kesich has recovered after a tough start and has made nine of his last 10 kicks for the Gophers.
Both program's punters have been solid, with Penn State's Riley Thompson averaging 42.7 yards per punt while Mark Crawford is averaging 43.4 this season for Minnesota.
In the return game, Penn State's success has been minimal especially in their punt return game while Koi Perich has been the most successful return man for the Gophers, averaging 18.8 yards per kick return and 12.9 yards per punt return. Perich biggest moments on Saturday could be on special teams.
VERDICT: Toss Up
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