Published Nov 23, 2024
Minnesota vs Penn State Prediction: Can the Gophers pull off the upset?
Dylan Callaghan-Croley  •  Gophers Nation
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It's officially game day as the Minnesota Golden Gophers host the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at Huntington Bank Stadium.

The Gophers (6-4, 4-3) with secured bow legibility will look to play spoiler to the Nittany Lion's potential first College Football Playoff appearance. The Nittany Lions enter Saturday's matchup with a 9-1 record including 6-1 in Big Ten play.

Their lone loss of the season came against the Ohio State Buckeyes earlier this month, since then, the Nittany Lions have dominated both Washington and Purdue.

Entering Saturday, the sportsbooks like Penn State considerably to win the game. The Nittany Lions enter gameday as an 11.5-point favorite over the Golden Gophers. Below, Gophers Nation makes our pick for Saturday's contest.

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Had this game been played last month, I would have liked the Gophers' chances much more. Penn State before the last two weeks was a habitual slow starter. However, since their loss to Ohio State, the NIttany Lions have been a much different team, especially out of the gate. That being said, I also think the Gophers are a better football team than Washington and ways better than Purdue. Overall, the point is, that Penn State is playing its best football at the right time.

What Minnesota has going for them on Saturday is the rest advantage and a full two weeks to prepare for the No. 4 team in the country. P.J. Fleck with a rest advantage at Minnesota has been very, very good posting a 10-2 record when having the rest advantage. Notably, since James Franklin took over Penn State in 2014, the Nittany Lions are 13-9 when facing a rest disadvantage.

That being said, I don't see many avenues to victory for Minnesota in this matchup. The offenses' inability to have a consistent rushing attack puts them in a precarious situation on Saturday as they'll be facing an elite secondary in Penn State. The Nittany Lions front seven is also among the best in the country and is tremendous at not only shutting down the run but also getting to the quarterback. It will be by far the best that the Gophers have faced this season and they'll have their hands full with the likes of Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, and Zane Durant.

For the Gophers to have an opportunity in this game, they would have to absolutely get the ground game going early and often. I don't see Minnesota scoring more than 20 in this matchup, if they're going to win it will be to be in a rock fight. The best way to make it a rock fight and win is to shorten the game by being able to run the ball successfully.

Defensively, the Gophers will not only have to worry about stopping Penn State's own rushing attack that's averaging 200 yards per game this season but also find a way to slow down Tyler Warren. Warren is the lifeblood of the Penn State offense and he has the ability to single-handedly dominate any game he's playing in. The Gophers linebackers have struggled in coverage this season, which will be a key matchup to watch on Saturday.

What makes Penn State's passing game truly challenging is the quarterback Drew Allar, despite not having a ton of great weapons in his wide receiver room, the junior is still averaging nearly 250 passing yards per game. A future NFL quarterback, Allar has the arm talent to make every throw in the book which is why what should be a mediocre passing attack for Penn State is still so dangerous and effective.

Ultimately, there are more ways for Penn State to win this game than Minnesota and for that reason, I'm picking the Nittany Lions. I do think Minnesota will keep it close, I expect it to be a one-score game or so heading into the fourth quarter before Penn State ultimately puts it away with an additional touchdown.


PREDICTION: Penn State 31 - Minnesota 17

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