Minnesota will look to avoid the Nebraska curse on Saturday when they take on the Northwestern Wildcats. What is the Nebraska curse?
It's simple, each team that has beaten Nebraska this season has gone on to lose their very next game. That trend continued last weekend when Illinois lost to Michigan State. Now the Gophers will look to break that streak on Saturday against the 1-8 Northwestern Wildcats.
The Gophers 6-3 on the season will look for their third straight win after losing three straight in October. Last weekend, the Gophers traveled to Lincoln to beat those aftermentioned Nebraska Cornhuskers 20-13 behind a strong second-half performance.
Last week: 21-7 loss to Ohio State
Northwestern is a bit better than their 1-8 record would make one think. While the Wildcats are nowhere near being a good team, they're a team that will give you everything they have every week. If the weather is sloppy, it plays into their hands even better.
Last weekend at home in poor weather, the Wildcats had Ohio State almost on upset alert. Through the first half, it was a 7-7 game, and even after just three quarters it was only 14-7 Ohio State. The Wildcats' defense played phenomenally with a little help from the weather but their offense simply couldn't string together enough big plays or momentum to make it a serious upset bid.
Nonetheless, it was an impressive performance from Pat Fitzgerald's team despite the loss. However, as strong as Northwestern has played the Buckeyes, and also played Ohio State pretty tough earlier this season, the Wildcats still have lost 14 consecutive games on American soil dating back to October 16 of last season against Rutgers. Their only win since then of course came in Dublin, Ireland at the start of this season over Nebraska.
Storylines to watch for:
1. Can Northwestern slow down Mohamed Ibrahim?
The Wildcats did a solid job last week in not allowing Ohio State running back Miyan Williams to run wild, keeping him to 4.3 yards per carry. They'll be tested again this week with Mohammed Ibrahim. On the season, Northwestern's rush defense has been below average and has had its struggles. They've allowed 4.7 yards per carry and nearly 190 rushing yards per game. This season, they've allowed 150+ rushing yards in seven of their nine contests and 200+ rushing yards in five of nine. This should be a matchup that favors the Gophers heavily.
2. Can Minnesota beat the Nebraska curse?
We mentioned the Nebraska curse above. Something will have to give in this game in terms of trends - will it be the Nebraska curse or will it be Northwestern losing 14 consecutive games on American soil?
3. Can Northwestern's offense keep up?
Minnesota's offense is going to be able to score points on Saturday, even if Northwestern comes out with a similar defensive performance to last week's against Ohio State, the Gophers should be able to get into the 21-24 point range at least. The Wildcats' offense, however, is among the worst in the country, scoring just 16.7 points per game. They've scored more than 24 points this season just once and have scored under 20 points in five of their nine games. Barring a disastrous defensive performance, the Gophers' offense could likely have an off day and still find a way to win this one rather comfortably.
Players to watch - Minnesota:
Players to watch - Northwestern:
Northwestern's offense:
Northwestern has rarely had strong offenses but rarely have they felt this weak either. The Wildcats this season are averaging 16.7 points per game which ranks 126th in the nation while averaging just over 350 yards per game.
Ryan Hilinksi was their starting quarterback to start the season but the Wildcats' have given Brendan Sullivan the reigns of recent and have seen a bit more success. In four games, he's completing 72.9% of his passes for 495 yards and four touchdowns. He has thrown three interceptions but the young quarterback has shown the playmaking ability that the Wildcats have desperately needed.
That being said, the Wildcats' entire offense runs through running back Evan Hull. The Minnesota native has totaled over 1,100 yards from scrimmage this season with 701 rushing yards and 465 receiving yards. He also has six touchdowns on the season. Other notable playmakers include wide receiver Malik Washington (49 receptions, 519 yards), and running back Cam Porter (78 touches, 288 yards, two touchdowns).
Play-calling-wise, the Wildcats tend to be a rather balanced offense, running the ball 39 times per game on average while attempting around 37 passes per game. They'll likely look to run the ball early against the Gophers early on Saturday but as the game progresses will go more and more toward the pass, especially if they find themselves in a hole on the scoreboard.
Northwestern's defense:
The Wildcats' defense is a victim of their poor offensive play. Are the Wildcats great defensively? No. But with an average offense, their defense would likely look more statistically around the lines of average than where they are currently, allowing nearly 400 total yards and 27.9 points per game.
Their pass defense this season has been solid, allowing just 58.6% of passes to be completed for just over 200 yards per game. Their rush defense as mentioned above has been more susceptible, allowing 4.7 yards per rush and 188.7 yards per game. All in all, the Wildcats are allowing 5.7 yards per play this season, as games progress, the big chunk of plays that they surrender tend to rise. Once again, in big part due to their struggles on the offensive side of the ball.
Names to know on the Wildcats' offense include LB Bryce Gallagher (86 tot, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT), LB Xander Mueller (70 tot, 7.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 INT), and DB Jeremiah Lewis (57 tot, 3.0 TFL, 4 PD).
Score Prediction: Minnesota 34 - Northwestern 13
At the end of the day, while this one could be close for the first quarter or so, Minnesota I believe will eventually cruise to victory. As stated above, even if Northwestern's defense came out and had one of their best performances of the season, the offense simply doesn't have the firepower against competent defenses. The Gophers' defense for the most part this season has been very strong and against low-powered offenses like the Wildcats, they've very much taken care of business.
While the Gophers' offense may have times of struggles on Saturday, I expect Mohammed Ibrahim to be able to be consistent on the ground and lead the way. It will be intriguing to see how Athan Kaliakmanis does as well, as he's expected to get the start for the Gophers. Even if he has some struggles comparable to those he had against Penn State, I don't see the Gophers losing this game.
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