Published Oct 17, 2023
How does ESPN's FPI view the Gophers ahead of their matchup against Iowa?
Dylan Callaghan-Croley  •  Gophers Nation
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@RivalsDylanCC

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are fresh off their bye week and now will have a mighty test this Saturday as they travel to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes since losing 31-0 to the Penn State Nittany Lions on September 23 have won three straight games, keeping their opponents to 16 points or less in all three games.

The Gophers on Saturday will also look to snap an eight game losing streak to the Hawkeyes while also looking to pick up their first victory in Iowa City since 1999. What does ESPN's FPI think the Gophers chances are of doing so on Saturday? How does it see the Gophers remaining schedule playing out overall?

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In the chart below, you can see the likelihood of Minnesota Football winning each of the remaining games on the 2023 football schedule.


MINNESOTA GAME BY GAME PREDICTIONS
GAMEESPN FPI LIKELIHOOD OF VICTORYCHANGE RECORD

10/21: @ Iowa

29.8%

-2.9%

3-4 (1-3)

10/28: vs Michigan State

56.9%

-1.5%

4-4 (2-3)

11/4: vs Illinois

59.4%

-6.2%

5-4 (3-3)

11/11: at Purdue

40.4%

+2.3%

5-5 (3-4)

11/18: at Ohio State

2.8%

-0.3%

5-6 (3-5)

11/25: vs Wisconsin

33.6%

+6.1%

5-7 (3-6)

WHAT IS ESPN'S FPI?

From ESPN's An inside look at College FPI

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.

Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.

It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams."